A new model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts that COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations will continue to decline over the next month.
The ‘ensemble’ forecast, published Wednesday, combines 37 independent forecasts of the number of deaths from the coronavirus over the next four weeks into one projection.
The CDC predicts that the weekly number of Covid deaths could fall to less than 4,000 in the week ending Nov. 6.
During the same period, the number of hospital admissions is predicted to drop to just 500 per week.
It is because the number of infections in the US continues to decline and the fourth wave of the pandemic, fueled by the Delta variant, is coming to an end.
A new forecast from the CDC ensemble predicts that the number of deaths and hospitalizations from COVID-19 in the US will continue to decline. Pictured: Bodies being moved to a refrigerated truck serving as a temporary morgue at Wyckoff Hospital in Brooklyn, New York, April 2020
The forecast predicts that the number of deaths per week will drop to 3,900 in the week ending Nov. 6, from the current 12,100 per week (above)
On Wednesday, the US recorded 3,054 virus-related deaths and a seven-day moving average of 1,657, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
This represents a 13 percent drop from the 1,917 average deaths recorded a month ago.
The CDC expects this decline to continue into November.
Deaths are forecast to decline over the next four weeks, with between 3,900 and 13,100 new weekly deaths reported by November 6, 2021, the third consecutive week of expected declines.
In addition, the forecast predicts a death toll of between 740,000 and 762,000 in the first week of November
There are currently more than 717,000 Covid deaths since the start of the pandemic, figures from Johns Hopkins show.
The hospitalization model, made from an ensemble of six independent forecasts, is also expected to decline.
The CDC model suggests that by November 5, the fifth week of predicted declines, between 500 new hospitalizations per week to 10,100 new hospitalizations per week will be reported.
According to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), 62,132 patients are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19.
It is a 33 percent decrease from the 93,703 hospital admissions recorded four weeks ago.
Covid hospitalizations are also expected to drop to just 500 new patients admitted per week, a fifth consecutive week of expected declines (listed above).
The CDC’s model isn’t the only one that has predicted a decline in deaths.
Another analysis, conducted by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which advises the CDC, was published last month and looked at different scenarios related to the trajectory of the pandemic.
Researchers came up with four different scenarios, depending on whether or not children between the ages of five and 11 should be vaccinated and whether or not a new variant has started to spread.
The model does not advocate for or against childhood vaccinations, only suggesting that they will take place in the fall of 2021.
BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR DEATH: The number of deaths is also expected to fall from 11,563 current weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly deaths, or about 59 per day (above)
WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR DEATH: Weekly deaths would also have a modest decline to 4,922 or 703 daily deaths in March 2022 (above)
According to the model, this will lead to weekly COVID-19 deaths falling to 415 weekly fatalities, or about 59 per day.
These are numbers not seen since late March 2020, when states first began shutting down and executing stay-at-home orders.
In the worst case scenario, where children are not approved for vaccination and a new variant that is 1.5 times more transmissible is circulating, the number of cases and deaths would still decrease – but not by much.
The model predicts that this scenario would lead to a drop in weekly cases by next spring to 467,507, or 66,786 daily infections, and 4,922 weekly deaths, or 703 daily deaths.
These numbers are comparable to levels seen during the summer of 2020, during the second wave of the pandemic, and in April 2021, after the deadly third wave.